Dismal opinion polls suggest the end of nearly a decade in power for Queensland’s Labor government, despite spending billions of dollars on campaign sweeteners in a bid to hang on to power.
But experts and insiders say that won’t be enough to prevent electoral destruction at the ballot box in October.
The government’s latest budget, presented last week, included an $11.2 billion package of measures to ease the cost of living, including a $1,000 rebate on electricity bills, a 20 percent discount on car rides, 50 cents on public transport and $200 voucher for parents of children who play sports.
Most initiatives are short-term and some, such as ultra-cheap bus, train and ferry tickets, will expire shortly after the next election.
“People can see through it,” one Labor veteran told nevs.com.au. “It seems desperate, but then again, it is.”
Big and sometimes reckless spending ahead of elections to woo voters is hardly a new phenomenon, said Paul Williams, an associate professor of politics and journalism at Griffith University.
“But even by that standard, the money splashed by Queensland’s Labor government under Premier Stephen Miles is eye-watering – not just in dollars but in the choices Treasurer Cameron Dick has made ahead of an election few believe Labor can win.” wrote Williams in an analysis for Conversation.
A poll conducted by Redbridge between February and May showed Labour’s primary vote has fallen 12 points since the last election in 2020 to just 28 per cent.
That would equate to a two-party preferred result of 47 per cent for the Lib Dems and a 10 per cent swing against Labour.
If translated at the ballot box, the government could lose 24 seats and give the LNP a majority government.
“Worryingly for Labour, the Redbridge figures are consistent with earlier research by Resolve Strategic, YouGov and Newspoll,” Mr Williams said. “Everyone has reported similar collapses in the Labor election since March.”
Based on those trends, he concluded: “Ultimately, Queenslanders appear to have made their judgment on the Miles government.”
“They will happily – but not gratefully – grab Labour’s cash and then go to the polls and vote LNP in a very decisive swing.”
Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Fellow in the Faculty of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne and Election Analyst for Conversationhe agreed.
Of Labour’s long run of dismal polls, he said: “The party now faces a heavy defeat at the October election after almost 10 years in power.
Recently, the mood among many at 1 William Street, the tower block where the prime minister and senior ministers live, has been somber at times, a political official admitted.
“Everyone is hoping and it’s not like we won’t fight until the end,” insists the source.
“But it doesn’t look good.”
Those in the Labor tent pondering what went so wrong for the once impenetrable government have one villain in their sights: Anastasia Palaszczuk.
Ms Palaszczuk became the so-called “accidental prime minister” when she toppled the LNP in 2015, against almost all expectations.
One-term miracle Campbell Newman swept to power in 2012, the biggest election victory in Australian history, reducing Labor to just seven MPs in opposition.
Ms. Palaszczuk enjoyed high popularity and voter approval, winning two more elections, until early 2022 when the wheels began to fall off and the government’s fortunes fell.
Mr Williams said she had lost political capital by failing to adequately address major issues such as the cost of living and youth crime.
Ms Palaszczuk has also been branded out of touch and absent thanks to her penchant for lavish red carpet events.
When she eventually resigned in December 2023, it was “too late to right the ship”, mused a Labor official.
Another figure in Queensland Labor politics said there was frustration that the government’s message did not seem to be getting through.
“Miles could give everyone in the state a Maserati and there would be criticism about the color options.”
Take last week’s budget.
While he was big on sugar for a good mood, the treasurer also devised a four-pronged approach to tackling some of the biggest issues affecting Queenslanders.
These are the cost of living, youth crime, housing and health.
“That’s why he allocated an additional $1.28 billion for more police and to support victims of crime,” Williams said.
“It’s also why health had an almost unprecedented 10.6 percent increase in funding – increasing the number of hospitals is a particular sore spot.”
“A further $3.1 billion has been invested in the Homes for Queenslanders program, which offers rental support while significantly raising the house value threshold before stamp duty is charged.”
And a staggering $107 billion is being spent over the next four years on the Big Build infrastructure program to help the state cope with a growing population.
But voters seem to have tuned out, Williams said.
“They have stopped listening to Miles and are now accepting the moderate, soft-spoken leader of the LNP, David Crisafulli,” he said.
In a poll conducted by Resolve Strategic between February and May for the Brisbane Times, Mr Crisafulli was far ahead as the preferred prime minister, with 39 points, and Mr Miles with 28.
Queensland goes to the polls on October 26.