NEW YORK/CHICAGO: President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and drop out of the US presidential race has created enough momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, according to three analysts Arab Americans.
Biden, who endorsed Harris in his retirement announcement on Sunday, trailed former President Donald Trump in opinion polls amid a growing Arab-American #AbandonBiden movement and broader calls to drop out of the 2024 race , after his disastrous June 27 debate performance in Atlanta. .
What was supposed to be a coronation for the 81-year-old Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19 has now become an open contest in which nearly 4,700 party delegates will vote by state for the candidate they chose to challenge Trump, the candidate of the Republican Party.
Rana Abtar, a Washington DC talk show host for Asharq News, expects Harris to become the Democratic nominee, although several other candidates could be considered. However, she believes Democrats “need to show unity” if they want to win the November election.
“Today, what we're seeing is that Democrats are starting to support Harris, one by one,” she told Arab News. “There were a few delegates in a few states that already voted to support Kamala Harris. That means their votes will be reflected in the Democratic National Convention.
“The rest of the Democrats who have not yet endorsed Harris are expected to fall in line soon. At some point we will see all Democrats, or most Democrats, aligning themselves behind Harris. It is very important for Democrats to present a show of unity after the dilemma their party faced after President Biden's announcement that he would not seek a second term.”
Biden's withdrawal from the race frees his convention delegates from the nation's 50 states and provinces to support any candidate during the convention. Many alternative names are being floated, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former first lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Noting that Harris is popular among African-American voters, a traditional mainstay of Democratic Party support, Abtar said many still see her as part of the Biden administration's policies that fueled the #AbandonBiden movement, in which Arabs and Muslims voted in a key way. state primaries for the “not committed” or “no vote” options, rather than for president.
“Harris is not that popular in the polls,” Abtar said. “Many Democrats are concerned that her chances against Trump are the same as President Biden's against Trump. Of course, in the coming days we'll see Harris out there talking to voters, because in the past, in her role as vice president, she hasn't spoken directly to the American people very often.
“Biden gave her the immigration issue, which in itself has put her in a very uncomfortable position, especially given that the Republicans' main attack against the Democrats is on immigration and border security.
“But I think the most important element here is not Harris. That will be who he chooses as his running mate because voters need excitement. Democratic voters need excitement to get out and vote.”
Abtar said third-party candidates, such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, are often viewed as “election spoilers” — people who could lose votes to Harris or right from Trump.
“Kennedy's numbers are considered pretty high for an independent candidate, and her voters could make a difference in the election season by taking votes away from … Trump or Harris … if she gets the official nomination,” Abtar said.
Any of the individuals currently suggested as replacements for Biden could become vice presidential nominees, including Pritzker, a billionaire with presidential ambitions of his own.
Amal Mudallali, former ambassador to the UN and CEO of Bridges International Group, believes Harris has a “perception problem”.
She told Arab News: “The perception is that he was not a strong vice president, that he will not be a strong candidate and that he will not be able to beat Trump.”
Although Democrats appeared to be moving quickly to rally behind Harris, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday, Mudallali remains cautious.
“It's all up in the air because there are still very strong Democrats who are calling for an open convention and to have an open field for everybody to throw their hats in the ring and see if they can make the strongest candidate for the Democratic Party. to be able to beat Trump,” she said.
The impact of independent candidates in elections cannot be dismissed either, she added.
“In very close elections, independent candidates can do a lot of damage. Because this election is a very close race — talk about a few thousand or a thousand votes — that could make or break an election campaign,” Mudallali said.
“Let's say if Kennedy managed to get a lot of votes from the Democrats, that could hurt the Democrats more and be a big problem for them.
“But so far we don't know who the Democratic Party candidate will be. If the individual is a very strong candidate, the party could unify the anti-Trump constituency, which will vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic nominee. In this case, the independents will not make a difference.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes Harris is “almost certain” to replace Biden as the nominee and suggested Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could be her running mate on the first “ticket for all women”.
He told Arab News: “Speculation is heavily focused on who her running mate will be as vice president, including possibly a women's ticket if she chooses Whitmer. It is unprecedented and involves risks. But Whitmer could help deliver the key swing state of Michigan, and an all-female team could reinvigorate the now largely demoralized Democratic base.
He added: “Harris's approval ratings with the American public have never been higher. But at this point, the decision of the Democratic Party and President Biden to put his name forward is largely based on funding and finances. She is the only one who will be able to qualify for all the money, the hundreds of millions of dollars, that have been raised so far. So her choice of a running mate will also be critical in terms of bringing that Democratic base around and the general likability of that Democratic ticket.”
Maksad believes Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race, and speculation about Whitmer's addition to the ticket, could sway Michigan's strong Arab and Muslim vote, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris team in the Feb. 27 Democratic primary. . .
“Arab-Americans are not monolithic,” he said. “They are a diverse group with different priorities spread across four battleground states. Michigan gets a lot of attention, but so do Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
“In Michigan, where there are 100,000 of them, they feel strongly about the war in Gaza and that President Biden is not doing enough to stop the war. Biden stepping aside opens up the potential for the Democratic Party to make further inroads among Michigan's Arab-Americans. And if the vice president (elect) were, in fact, the governor of Michigan, that would give Democrats even more opportunities to make inroads and win back Michigan as a key battleground state.”
